Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan dengan Kondisi Keuangan sebelum Pandemi Covid-19 sebagai Variabel Moderasi
Abstract
This study uses financial conditions before the Covid-19 pandemic as a moderating variable to examine the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the prediction of company bankruptcy. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is measured by the disclosure of information submitted by publicly traded companies to the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The prediction of company bankruptcy was proxied by the Springate model. The financial condition before the Covid-19 pandemic was proxied by the current and debt-to-equity ratios. The population in this study is retail sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019-2020, as many as 27 companies. A total 0f 24 samples were obtained using the purposive sampling technique. The data analysis technique we used was linear regression with a moderation model. The result found that the Covid-19 pandemic has a negative and significant impact on the bankruptcy prediction.
Meanwhile, the financial condition before the Covid-19 pandemic has a moderating effect. Suggestion for the company is to maintain the level of liquidity and solvency during the prolonged Covid-19 pandemic. Based on this study, companies that have entered into a bankruptcy prediction must make changes immediately by efficiently using finance, restructuring, product and service differentiation, and developing an e-commerce to recover sales and revenues.
Abstrak
Penelitian ini menggunakan kondisi keuangan sebelum pandemi Covid-19 sebagai variabel moderasi untuk menguji pengaruh pandemi Covid-19 terhadap prediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan. Dampak pandemi diukur dengan melihat keterbukaan informasi yang disampaikan oleh perusahaan go publik kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia. Prediksi kebangkrutan diproksikan oleh model Springate. Kondisi keuangan sebelum pandemi Covid-19 diproksikan oleh current ratio dan debt to equity ratio. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan sub sektor ritel yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 2019-2020 sebanyak 27 perusahaan. Sampel dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 24 perusahaan ritel yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah regresi linear dengan model moderasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dampak pandemi Covid-19 berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap prediksi kebangkrutan.
Sementara itu, kondisi keuangan sebelum pandemi Covid-19 mampu menjadi variabel moderasi. Saran untuk perusahaan adalah tetap menjaga tingkat likuiditas dan solvabilitas dalam masa pandemi Covid-19 yang berkepanjangan. Bagi perusahaan yang sudah masuk pada prediksi bangkrut berdasar penelitian ini, harus segera melakukan perubahan dengan cara melakukan efisiensi penggunaan keuangan, restrukturisasi, diferensiasi produk dan jasa, mengembangkan e-commerce agar penjualan dan pendapatan perusahaan kembali pulih.
Kata Kunci: Dampak Pandemi Covid-19, Model Springate, Kondisi Keuangan
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